Techno optimism is a genuine problem. I am interested if you ever explore the SCNC (Social Cost of No Carbon) scenario, there are serious things to be said about that.
Richard, great commentary. There is one essential factor which you overlooked that bolsters your argument.
Economic growth in society is, as you rightly point out, dependent on access to ever greater sources of increasingly dense energy resources, however, as one energy source is superseded by a new source, the economy remains dependent on the previous source. What is more, the demand for the previous source continues to grow but just not at the same pace as the new source. For example, the addition of oil and natural gas to coal-dependent economies in the 20th century.
This is a process of energy source additions that you have commented on in the past.
What is demanded today is not just the fantasy of a four-fold increase in energy supply in 80 years but an energy transition: removal from the primary energy mix its very foundation - the 82% supplied by fossil fuels. And that transition still hadn’t begun!
Sheik Yamani famously declared that the stone age didn’t end because of a lack of stones, suggesting we will move on from oil long before reserves are depleted. Well, quarrying stone is still a multi-billion dollar business.....
Thanks Jon - seems like this is an extension of the Techno-Optimist doctrine - the next big thing will be Rebuildables and it will be cleaner and cheaper. I was just reading a thread on LI about how "we won't run out of minerals" - which is arguably OK - but the assumption underlying all of it is that we will be able afford it (in the monetary sense). I'd wager that yes, the minerals are there, but no we won't be able to afford it (in energy and monetary sense)
I finally read this entire thing, I agree infinity percent.
The one wildcard I keep an open mind to (though don't actually believe) is if aliens really exist and will share their zero-point-energy machines. If that happens, all bets are off. Until then....
I think we should work together in the future. Is there any money to be made in leading edge energy economics?
Techno optimism is a genuine problem. I am interested if you ever explore the SCNC (Social Cost of No Carbon) scenario, there are serious things to be said about that.
Yes indeed - and thanks for the reminder!
Great article 🔥
Richard, great commentary. There is one essential factor which you overlooked that bolsters your argument.
Economic growth in society is, as you rightly point out, dependent on access to ever greater sources of increasingly dense energy resources, however, as one energy source is superseded by a new source, the economy remains dependent on the previous source. What is more, the demand for the previous source continues to grow but just not at the same pace as the new source. For example, the addition of oil and natural gas to coal-dependent economies in the 20th century.
This is a process of energy source additions that you have commented on in the past.
What is demanded today is not just the fantasy of a four-fold increase in energy supply in 80 years but an energy transition: removal from the primary energy mix its very foundation - the 82% supplied by fossil fuels. And that transition still hadn’t begun!
Sheik Yamani famously declared that the stone age didn’t end because of a lack of stones, suggesting we will move on from oil long before reserves are depleted. Well, quarrying stone is still a multi-billion dollar business.....
Thanks Jon - seems like this is an extension of the Techno-Optimist doctrine - the next big thing will be Rebuildables and it will be cleaner and cheaper. I was just reading a thread on LI about how "we won't run out of minerals" - which is arguably OK - but the assumption underlying all of it is that we will be able afford it (in the monetary sense). I'd wager that yes, the minerals are there, but no we won't be able to afford it (in energy and monetary sense)
We're gonna need so much baseload fission it isn't even funny.
I finally read this entire thing, I agree infinity percent.
The one wildcard I keep an open mind to (though don't actually believe) is if aliens really exist and will share their zero-point-energy machines. If that happens, all bets are off. Until then....
I think we should work together in the future. Is there any money to be made in leading edge energy economics?