The Australian government acknowledges that six oil tankers from Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, expected to arrive next month, have been canceled.
I think this is what prompted NZ's finance minister, Nicola Willis , to vist NZ's inbound terminal , and smile at a arriving tanker. Ignoring that there is not much more arriving that wouldn't have left refineries pre crisis. Panic next week I guess.
I fear not. There will be lots of -"We must move faster to transition away from fossil fuels" which has nice vibes and feelings but is very unlikely to work out as they expect.
Great to have it laid out in detail, Pandreco but you do yourself a disservice with cheap shots like "Of course, nobody listened - too busy giving Greta an audience."
In reality those in power were at a long lunch with the oil executives and their lobbyists who have been telling everyone that oil is a forever fuel for which there is no alternative and renewables don't work anyway. Why else would the current government have come up with a plan like the LNG terminal? Greta certainly wouldn't have suggested that.
@stephen reynolds That's a fair point about my "style" - but the point remains, given this 2013 warning about the fragile nature of Australia's fuel supply chain (which has gotten worse since), why was it ignored? The answer is usually economics - just-in-time is cheaper than having a big strategic reserve, and works well... until it doesn't. My point about listening to Greta is that many countries have bought into the idea that a fossil free future is just around the corner (all that talk of stranded assets etc) - and as such have underestimated (a) the slowness of the transition and (b) the criticality of the existing system. yes lots of solar (and if this "transition" will work anywhere, AUS would appear to be ground zero for sure. The LNG import terminal is an admission that renewables need back up, that AUS doesn't want to use coal and that the big W.AUS gas resources might as well be on a different continent they are so far away...
We've being going in strange directions for a long time in Australia, like we're trying to please the world somehow at our own expense. The state I'm in at the moment, Victoria, has an abundance of natural resources under it's bum, but refuses to touch it. It has a fracking ban now written into its constitution - and don't get me started on nuclear either!
When the powers that be don't like something or it's in the too-hard basket, they either cancel it and/or make it illegal. Does my head in.
The whole idea that we are seeing the early stages of a major shift (just as the early weeks of Covid we could see something happening, but couldn't grasp the ramifications). I wrote about this last week. https://pandreco.substack.com/p/complacency-syndrome
To your point - there is an interesting comparisson of how many million bbls/d of demand were dropped with Covid shutdowns, and now we may have the same scale supply disruption - which will mirror into economic "lockdowns".
Not really. COVID pandemic awas very real but with lots of future unknowns as it was spreading. This crisis is very real with lots of known futures as it develops. It is very clear as to how our globalised system of everything will contract as the fundamental source of it's energy is interrupted.
Even if the bombing ends today the crisis will continue to escalate (get worse) for more than several months.
Fuel controls will be enforced, food supplies will tighten, costs will inflate, companies will go under and the rich will get richer, no doubt. Stop talking, get prepared.
and yet it moves:
The Australian government acknowledges that six oil tankers from Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, expected to arrive next month, have been canceled.
𝑻𝒐𝒅𝒂𝒚, 147 𝒑𝒆𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒓𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒆𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍 𝒐𝒓 𝒅𝒊𝒆𝒔𝒆𝒍!
https://x.com/i/status/2035720933881602385
I think this is what prompted NZ's finance minister, Nicola Willis , to vist NZ's inbound terminal , and smile at a arriving tanker. Ignoring that there is not much more arriving that wouldn't have left refineries pre crisis. Panic next week I guess.
Well said. My thought as well. Propoganda photo posing as news.
Maybe this will wake up the 'progressives' and magical thinkers.
This has been coming for a long time.
I fear not. There will be lots of -"We must move faster to transition away from fossil fuels" which has nice vibes and feelings but is very unlikely to work out as they expect.
Yeah fair point.
Great to have it laid out in detail, Pandreco but you do yourself a disservice with cheap shots like "Of course, nobody listened - too busy giving Greta an audience."
In reality those in power were at a long lunch with the oil executives and their lobbyists who have been telling everyone that oil is a forever fuel for which there is no alternative and renewables don't work anyway. Why else would the current government have come up with a plan like the LNG terminal? Greta certainly wouldn't have suggested that.
@stephen reynolds That's a fair point about my "style" - but the point remains, given this 2013 warning about the fragile nature of Australia's fuel supply chain (which has gotten worse since), why was it ignored? The answer is usually economics - just-in-time is cheaper than having a big strategic reserve, and works well... until it doesn't. My point about listening to Greta is that many countries have bought into the idea that a fossil free future is just around the corner (all that talk of stranded assets etc) - and as such have underestimated (a) the slowness of the transition and (b) the criticality of the existing system. yes lots of solar (and if this "transition" will work anywhere, AUS would appear to be ground zero for sure. The LNG import terminal is an admission that renewables need back up, that AUS doesn't want to use coal and that the big W.AUS gas resources might as well be on a different continent they are so far away...
Thanks, great piece.
We've being going in strange directions for a long time in Australia, like we're trying to please the world somehow at our own expense. The state I'm in at the moment, Victoria, has an abundance of natural resources under it's bum, but refuses to touch it. It has a fracking ban now written into its constitution - and don't get me started on nuclear either!
When the powers that be don't like something or it's in the too-hard basket, they either cancel it and/or make it illegal. Does my head in.
Does this remind anyone about covid times with projections of impact based on different lockdown scenarios?
The whole idea that we are seeing the early stages of a major shift (just as the early weeks of Covid we could see something happening, but couldn't grasp the ramifications). I wrote about this last week. https://pandreco.substack.com/p/complacency-syndrome
To your point - there is an interesting comparisson of how many million bbls/d of demand were dropped with Covid shutdowns, and now we may have the same scale supply disruption - which will mirror into economic "lockdowns".
Not really. COVID pandemic awas very real but with lots of future unknowns as it was spreading. This crisis is very real with lots of known futures as it develops. It is very clear as to how our globalised system of everything will contract as the fundamental source of it's energy is interrupted.
Even if the bombing ends today the crisis will continue to escalate (get worse) for more than several months.
Fuel controls will be enforced, food supplies will tighten, costs will inflate, companies will go under and the rich will get richer, no doubt. Stop talking, get prepared.
NZ prices far worse than infographic have. seeing 3.27 91 and 3.09 consistently